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Cold Truth About Emotional Investing 17 May 2013

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When it comes to investing, emotion is commonly seen as a weakness that must be shunned. But new research from professors David Tuckett and Richard Taffler suggests that emotions play an inevitable part in all investing, by amateurs and pros alike.

In their recent book "Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective," the professors present the results of interviews with 52 experienced fund managers in the U.S., U.K., France and Asia. The picture that emerges is one of acute anxiety and emotional conflict.

The bottom line, they say: Individuals and pros perform better when they acknowledge that investing is inherently emotionally charged and when they understand how emotions affect their behavior.

We talked with Prof. Taffler, professor of finance and accounting at Warwick Business School in the U.K., and Prof. Tuckett, a fellow of the Institute of Psychoanalysis in London and visiting professor at University College London, about the role of emotions in investing. Here are edited excerpts of those conversations.

PROF. TUCKETT: What we try to do in emotional finance is start with the fact that the future is unknowable. The key thing about uncertainty is that it inevitably generates feelings. Because it matters to you, because your moneys on the line, so to speak, youre bound to feel emotionally engaged.

PROF. TAFFLER: Although most of the fund managers we interviewed saw part of their particular competitive advantage as remaining, as they described it, unemotional or rational, in practice they were just as emotional as anyone else when they started to talk about the stocks they had invested in. There were lots of examples where they referred to them almost as if they were lovers.

If youre entering into an emotional relationship with a stock, an asset or a company that can let you down, this leads to anxiety, which is often not consciously acknowledged. But its there, bubbling beneath the surface.

PROF. TUCKETT: They have to feel conviction. With a narrative you can join up different facts with emotions, and that creates a sense of conviction, and that is absolutely essential for action. So we arent saying "Oh, theyre only storytellers." Were saying you need to tell a story.

PROF. TAFFLER: One of the fund managers talked about investing in a fast-food company, how he visited the restaurants and looked at what people were ordering. The story was about seeing something nobody else could see, and that feeling gave him the confidence to invest.

WSJ: Could you talk about what investors expect from fund managers and what effect that has on the fund managers?

PROF. TAFFLER: A very important insight in emotional finance is the concept of the fantastic object. Its like Aladdins lamp, which you polish and can have anything you want. In unconscious terms this is ultimately what we are all looking for.

The whole environment is problematic, because fund managers are expected to outperform on a continuous basis, in competition with other equally able and well-resourced managers, and of course not everyone can do this. So actually the fund managers are required to be fantastic objects, to earn continuous superior returns at low risk. This is, of course, only possible in fantasy, not reality.

To be able to do this, fund managers have to be able to believe they can find fantastic objects themselves, stocks with which they can have special relationships and which are going to outperform with minimal risk.

 

Wishing on a Star

WSJ: With individual investors, I suppose its about managing the uncertainty of putting their money into the markets—it helps if theyve got this idea of the star manager who can handle it all for them.

PROF. TAFFLER: Yes. In emotional-finance terms an important part of the fund managers job is to defeat uncertainty. In a sense weve got an institutional structure which seeks to deny that ultimately were all working in an environment that is inherently unpredictable.

WSJ: What can individual investors learn from your research?

PROF. TAFFLER: Ive done separate research on individual investors, and of course they have all these same feelings writ large. You need to recognize that cognition and emotion go together; you cant have one without the other. If you were coldly unemotional, which is of course not possible, then you wouldnt actually be able to generate the conviction necessary to take the risk of investing.

 

 

Sonali Bank Bangladesh adopts Polaris core banking tools 17 May 2013

Bangladesh’s Sonali Bank has adopted a core banking system from Indian technology company Polaris, in a move that it says will transform it into the most modern bank in the country.

Sonali Bank is the largest state-owned bank in Bangladesh. The bank has 1,200 branches in the country and also has operations in the UK, the USA, the Middle East and India. The bank had already signed a memorandum of understanding to form a joint venture company, Sonali Polaris FT, together with Bangladesh Commerce Bank, in July 2011.

Sonali Bank required customisation, delivery, installation, implementation and maintenance of fully centralised online real time banking system as well as migration of data and training to the bank’s employees on ORTB in all its branches, subsidiaries and joint ventures around the globe.

“Under the guidance of Polaris Bangladesh, SPFT is the only company providing direct implementation, doorstep delivery and local support infrastructure to Bangladesh’s BFS segment,” said K Srinivasan, EVP & head of the Indian subcontinent, Middle East, and Africa business at Polaris Financial Technology. “Designed by bankers, our Intellect core banking system is highly scalable and caters to both private and public sector banks in the country. Supporting the vision of the bank, this implementation enables them to move towards next generation banking technology that provides them with a competitive service edge and faster go-to-market. On complete implementation across its 1200 branches, Sonali bank will serve as the most modern public sector bank in Bangladesh.”

Bangladesh has seen a host of new banks cropping up in recent months, as part of a government-driven push to improve financial inclusion in the country and drive up economic activity. Approximately 60% of Bangladesh’s 150 million population is currently unbanked, while two-thirds of the country’s population is still employed in agriculture, according to figures provided by the UN.

In April, new Bangladeshi bank South Bangla Agriculture & Commerce Bank began operations using Temenos T24 as its core banking software. SBAC Bank is one of nine new entrants to the Bangladeshi banking market this year.

Quick Update for Emerging Markets 17 May 2013

This is what has changed in the EM space, in our view: 
 
1) The Bank of Israel surprised with a 25 bp rate cut Monday, an intra-meeting move
 
2) EUR/CZK traded above 26 for the first time since November 2011, as Q1 GDP came in much worse than expected at -1.9% y/y vs. -1.7% y/y in Q4
 
3) On the other hand, EUR/HUF moved lower on better than expected Q1 GDP of -0.9% y/y vs. -2.7% y/y in Q4
 
4) PBOC is finally fixing USD/CNY higher after a prolonged bout of appreciation
1) The Bank of Israel surprised with a 25 bp rate cut to 1.5% Monday, an intra-meeting move. Next scheduled meeting is May 27. We’ve been looking for more cuts, especially as the shekel has strengthened, but found this week’s cut a bit strange in terms of timing. Israel has kept rates steady since the December 24 cut to 1.75%. It met in January, February, and March and kept rates steady. Why now? The next meeting was only two weeks away. It looks like the currency aspect drove this decision. 
 
 As  it cut rates, the central bank noted that the shekel has been boosted by natural gas sales and global monetary easing, and announced a plan to buy $2.1 bln of foreign exchange this year in an effort to offset the money from gas sales. USD/ILS had already bottomed May 9 but we think the authorities are acting aggressively now to go WITH the market, instead of fighting it. The pair moved back above the 3.60 area for the first time since April 29. Resistance is seen near 3.70 and 3.75, support is seen near 3.60 and 3.56.
 
2) EUR/CZK traded above 26 for the first time since November 2011, as Q1 GDP came in much worse than expected at -1.9% y/y vs. -1.7% y/y in Q4. In q/q terms, GDP was -0.8% vs. -0.2% in Q4 and we note that GDP has contracted q/q for 6 straight quarters. Indeed, the Q1 reading of -0.8% is the worst of them all. Things are getting worse, not better. If market keeps selling CZK, the central bank may not have to do anything. The November 2011 high near 26.12 isn’t very far away, and we favor a move towards late 2009 highs near 26.50. For now, the market is doing the heavy lifting for the central bank.
 
3) On the other hand, EUR/HUF is moving lower on better than expected Q1 GDP of -0.9% y/y vs. -2.7% y/y in Q4. In q/q terms, Q1 GDP grew 0.7% vs. a revised -0.4% (was -0.9%) in Q4. It is the first positive q/q reading since Q4 2011 and the strongest since Q1 2011. Still, this is hardly any reason to break out the tokaj to celebrate, and it is certainly not strong enough to preclude another 25 bp rate cut at the next meeting May 28. 
 
We think that current levels near 290 would be a good opportunity to go long EUR/HUF. 200-day MA comes in near 290 and should offer support. Break below would target support near 285. On the upside, resistance is seen near 295, 300, and 303. Separately, we note that the recent weakness of the Swiss franc may be supportive of Hungary insofar as it is easier to service the still substantial levels of franc denominated consumer debt.  
 
4) PBOC is finally fixing USD/CNY higher. After a long string of CNY gains, it has finally started to weaken in line with the rest of the region. For 4 out of the 5 past days, USD/CNY has been fixed higher, and the Thursday fix was the highest since May 6. Next week will give markets the first glimpse of May data from China, with the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI due out next Wednesday. April data was mixed, with surveys (PMIs) weaker than expected and hard data (trade, new loans) stronger than expected. 
 
We think that China data probably offers modest downside risks to markets rather than upside risks at this juncture. Between the broad based dollar rally under way and downside risks to the Chinese economy, we think that the yuan is likely to trade sideways to weaker in the coming weeks. Next week, we get the first glimpse of the economy with HSBC flash PMI on Thursday.
Five Qualities For Successful Trader 17 May 2013

  1. Capacity for Prudent Risk-taking.The young successful trader is not afraid to go after markets aggressively when the opportunity presents itself.
  2. Capacity for Rule Governance. The young successful trader has the self-control to follow rules in the heat of battle, such as rules of position sizing and risk management.
  3. Capacity for Sustained Effort.The trader uses productive time to do research, preparation, work on himself, outside of market hours.
  4. Capacity for Emotional Resilience. All young traders will lose money early in their development and experience multiple frustrations. The successful ones will not lose self-confidence and motivation in the face of loss and frustrations.
  5. Capacity for Sound reasoning. The successful young trader exhibits an ability to synthesize data and generate market and trading scenarios.
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